State Political Scores

How "Blue" (Democratic) or "Red" (Republican) is a State, really?

I start with 1964, because that was the year of the Civil Rights Act, when the South began to turn. If a State went for the Democratic nominee that year, gets 1 point; in 1968, 2 points; and so on, up to 2016, 14 points.

The exceptions are when a Southern State went for a Southern Democrat, because we can safely presume that it wouldn't have gone for a non-Southerner: Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and 1980, or Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. In each of these cases, the State in question gets only half the credit it would ordinarily get. By 2000, Al Gore was not going to be treated as a "Southerner" by the South, and Hillary Clinton certainly wasn't.




49. Idaho, 1: Nearly went Red for Goldwater in 1964, did for Nixon in 1968, and has stayed that way.
43. Alaska, 1: Went Red in 1968, and has stayed that way. Not so much conservative as Libertarian: They legalized recreational marijuana, which is why I've ranked it ahead of the other 1-pointers.

42. Alabama, 2: Went Red for Goldwater in 1964, and has since gone Blue only for Carter in 1976, but not 1980.

41. Mississippi, 2: Went Red for Goldwater in 1964, and has since gone Blue only for Carter in 1976, but not 1980. Ranked ahead of Alabama because Obama and Hillary have come slightly closer to taking it.

40. Texas, 2: Went Red for Goldwater in 1964, and has since gone Blue only for Carter in 1976, but not 1980. Ranked ahead of Mississippi because Obama and Hillary have come slightly closer to taking it.
36. Arizona, 9: Goldwater just barely won his home State in 1964. Other than that LBJ victory, Bill Clinton's win there in 1996 is the only time it's gone Blue since Harry Truman in 1948.

35. Missouri, 9.5: Blue for LBJ in 1964, Carter in 1976, and Bill Clinton both times. Red all the other times. In other words, from 1964 onward, it has only gone Blue for Southerners. So I'm going to treat it as a Southern State, and cut its total in half, from 19 to 9.5.

34. Arkansas, 10.5: Went Red in 1964, and has since gone Blue only for Carter in 1976 (but not 1980) and homestater Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

33. Louisiana, 10.5: Went Red for Goldwater in 1964, and has stayed since except for Carter in 1976 (but not 1980) and Bill Clinton both times. Ranked ahead of Arkansas because it's not Bill's home State.

32. Tennessee, 11: Went Red for Nixon in 1968, and has since gone Blue only for Carter in 1976 (but not 1980), and Bill Clinton both times (but not for his Vice President, Gore, in 2000).

31. Kentucky, 11: Went Red for Nixon in 1968, turned Blue for Carter in 1976 (but not 1980), turned Blue for Bill Clinton both times, but not since. Obama and Hillary came closer to taking it than to taking Tennessee.

26. Florida, 32: Went Red for Nixon in 1968, Blue for Carter in 1976, back Red for Reagan in 1980, Blue for Bill Clinton in 1996 (but not 1992), the flashpoint in 2000, Blue for Obama in 2008, back Red in 2016.

25. Virginia, 39.5: Went Red for Nixon in 1968, stayed Red until Obama in 2008 (it was the 1 former Confederate State that Carter did not win in 1976), has stayed Blue since.

24. Ohio, 47: Went Red for Nixon in 1968, stayed Red except for Carter in 1976, until 1992, going Blue for Bill Clinton both times, went Red for Dubya both times, went Blue for Obama both times, went Red for Trump in 2016.

13. Illinois, 78: Went Red for Nixon in 1968, stayed that way until Bill Clinton in 1992, and has stayed Blue since. Ranked ahead of California because of fewer homestaters (Obama's 2 and, sort-of, Hillary Clinton's 1 vs. 2 each for Nixon and Reagan).

12. Vermont, 78: Went Red for Nixon in 1968, stayed Red until turning Blue for Bill Clinton in 1992, has stayed Blue since. Ranked ahead of Illinois because no homestaters.

11. New Jersey, 78: Went Red for Nixon in 1968, stayed Red until turning Blue for Bill Clinton in 1992, has been Blue since. Ranked ahead of Vermont because it's my home State.

10. Connecticut, 80: Went Red for Nixon in 1972, didn't turn Blue again until Bill Clinton in 1992, but has stayed that way.

9. Delaware, 82: Went Red for Nixon both times, Reagan both times, and Daddy Bush in 1988, otherwise solid Blue.

8. Oregon, 85: Went Red for Nixon in 1968, turned Blue for Dukakis in 1988, has stayed Blue since.

7. New York, 91: Has gone Blue every time except for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1980 and 1984.

6. Maryland, 92: Has gone Blue every time except for Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1984 and Daddy Bush in 1988.

5. Washington, 93: Hasn't gone Red since Reagan in 1984.

4. Hawaii, 96: Since gaining Statehood in 1959, has gone Blue every time except for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984, the 2 49-State landslides.

3. Rhode Island, 96: Has gone Blue every time except for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984, the 2 49-State landslides.

2. Massachusetts, 99: Has gone Blue every time except for Walter Mondale over Reagan in 1984, the only State not to do so that year.

1. Minnesota, 102: Has gone Blue every time except for George McGovern over Nixon in 1972, the only State not to do so that year.

--. District of Columbia, 105: Since getting to vote for President for the 1st time in 1964, its mostly-black permanent residents have gone Blue every time. But it's not ranked, because, of course, it's not a State.

*

But ever since the screwed-up election of 2000 created the terms "Blue State" and "Red State," we get a different picture. The influences of Presidents before George W. Bush no longer apply. So let's judge them only from 2000 onward, and we will see their "true colors":

50. Wyoming, 0.
49. Idaho, 0.
48. Kansas, 0.
47. Oklahoma, 0.
46. West Virginia, 0. It's Shotgunistan now.
45. Arkansas, 0, with Bill Clinton's influence gone.
44. Louisiana, 0, Hurricane Katrina scattering the black vote hurt a lot.
43. Tennessee, 0, Gore came close in 2000 but it's slid back since.
42. Alaska, 0 but there's the slightest of hope.
41. North Dakota, 0 but there's slight hope.
40. South Dakota, 0 but there's slight hope.
39. Utah, 0 but there's slight hope.
38. Alabama, 0 but there's slight hope.
37. Mississippi, 0 but there's slight hope.
36. Kentucky, 0 but there's slight hope.
35. Texas, 0 but there's some hope.
34. South Carolina, 0 but there's some hope.
33. Georgia, 0 but there's some hope.
32. Montana, 0 but Obama nearly won it in 2008, so there's hope.
31. Arizona, 0 but Obama nearly won it in 2008, so there's hope.
30. Missouri, 0 but nearly won by Gore in 2000 and Obama in 2008.
29. Nebraska, 1 for that 1 EV in 2008. Less hope for the State overall.
28. Indiana, 3. Obama won it in 2008.
27. North Carolina, 3. Obama almost won it both times.