January 19, 2002, 20 years ago: The New England Patriots play their last game at their old Foxboro Stadium, in Foxborough, Massachusetts. It is also the game that establishes a dynasty that, 20 years later, is, more or less, still running.
With what would be named Gillette Stadium rising next-door, the Patriots hosted the Oakland Raiders in an AFC Divisional Playoff. These teams were both charter franchises in the American Football League, and there were priors:
* December 18, 1976: The Patriots thought they were headed for the Super Bowl, but a last-minute roughing the passer penalty by referee Ben Dreith against Ray Hamilton gave the Raiders new life. They capitalized, and went on to win the Super Bowl.
* August 12, 1978: Raider safety Jack Tatum clobbered Patriot receiver Darryl Stingley, paralyzing him from the neck down. In an exhibition game.
* January 5, 1986: The teams met in the postseason for the 1st time since the Ben Dreith Game. The Patriots won. Afterward, Patrick Sullivan, son of Patriots owner Billy, got into a shouting match with Raider linebacker Matt Millen, who was angry at Sullivan heckling defensive end Howie Long. Millen threw the first punch, but Sullivan held his own. He told a reporter after the game, "We're just getting back for Jack Tatum, and all the crap that their football team has put on our football team over the years."
With 16 years come and gone, and the Patriots having changed ownership twice in the interim, those moments shouldn't have mattered. And maybe they didn't to Patriots owner Robert Kraft, head coach Bill Belichick, and quarterback Tom Brady; or to their respective counterparts on the Raiders: Al Davis, Jon Gruden and Rich Gannon. But then, Al Davis was always going to be Al Davis, so who knew?
The Patriots were 11-5, and Champions of the AFC Eastern Division. The Raiders were 10-6, and had won the AFC Western Division. The Patriots had a 1st Round bye, while the Raiders had beaten the New York Jets. Neither team had an appreciable edge on experience. Cliché Alert: Home-field advantage is usually said to be worth 3 points, and the Las Vegas oddsmakers had made the Patriots 3-point favorites.
The game started at 8:05 PM Eastern Time, and it was 25 degrees with snow falling. Understandable weather for New England in January, unusual for Oakland anytime. (The Oakland Coliseum has been considered a cold place to play, but they've never had snow during a game, either baseball or football.) Also understandable, given the weather, there was no scoring in the 1st quarter. In the 2nd quarter, Gannon threw a 13-yard touchdown pass to James Jett, and the Raiders led 7-0 at the half. So, if the weather was affecting them, it wasn't much.
Adam Vinatieri got the Pats on the board with a 23-yard field goal. But Sebastian Janikowski kicked 2 for the Raiders, from 38 and 45 yards out. After 3 quarters, the Raiders led, 13-3. They still held that lead with 8 minutes left in regulation. The Raiders hadn't been to the Super Bowl in 18 years, but it looked like they were going.
With 7:52 left, Brady scored on a 6-yard run, to make it 13-10. With 2:19 left, the Raiders had to punt. The Patriots got the ball back on their own 46-yard line. Brady threw to Kevin Faulk for 7 yards. Then he ran for 5 yards and a 1st down. With 1:50 on the clock, and the ball on the Raider 42, the Raiders needed at least 10 more yards for a game-tying field goal. Then came the play that changed the history of the National Football League.
Brady dropped back to pass, but didn't see any open receivers. He pumped the ball, but the ball did not leave his hand. Then he was hit on his right by Charles Woodson, a fellow University of Michigan graduate. And at this point, the ball did leave Brady's hand, and fall to the ground. Raider linebacker Greg Biekert recovered. Raider ball.
Except referee Walt Coleman wasn't sure if it was a fumble or an incomplete pass. So he ruled it a fumble. A a call of "Fumble" would trigger an automatic instant replay review; while a call of "Incomplete pass" could not be reviewed. Whether that's fair or not, that was the rule of the time.
In 1999, the NFL instituted Rule 3, Section 22, Article 2, Note 2: When [an offensive] player is holding the ball to pass it forward, any intentional forward movement of his arm starts a forward pass, even if the player loses possession of the ball as he is attempting to tuck it back toward his body. Also, if the player has tucked the ball into his body and then loses possession, it is a fumble.
If he was still moving the ball inward, to "tuck" the ball into his body when he lost possession, then this "Tuck Rule" would make the play in question an incomplete pass.
Beyond any question, Brady's arm had moved forward. Beyond any question, that movement stopped. If there was an attempt to pass, it had concluded. He then lost the ball.
In order to overturn a ruling, the replay must show that the ruling on the field was obviously wrong. The replay showed that the ruling on the field was a fumble, was absolutely correct. Therefore, the call should have stood, and the Raiders should have been given a 1st & 10 in Patriots' territory.
Instead, the ruling on the field was overturned: Incomplete pass. The Patriots kept the ball: 2nd & 10, on the Raider 42, with 1:47 to go.
Brady threw to David Patten for 13 yards and a 1st down. He threw passes intended for Troy Brown and Jermaine Williams, both falling incomplete. He ran up the middle for 1 yard. Belichick sent Adam Vinatieri in to kick a field goal. From 45 yards out. On natural grass. On frozen natural grass. In a snowstorm. With a little bit of wind. But the kick was good, and the game went to overtime.
The Patriots won the toss, and got the ball to start the overtime. They converted a 4th & 4 play, rather than attempt a game-winning 48-yard field goal into the wind. They got close enough for Vinatieri to try a 23-yard field goal with 6:35 left in the 1st overtime. It was good, and the Patriots had won, 16-13.
Under today's overtime rules, the team getting the ball first only kicking a field goal would not have ended the game. The Raiders would still have gotten the ball, with the chance to tie with a field goal or win with a touchdown. (This rule is designed to avoid long field goals giving a team a cheap overtime win, just because they won the coin toss. Had the Patriots scored a touchdown, the game would have been over and the Raiders would not have gotten a chance.)
The Patriots then beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, and upset the St. Louis Rams to win Super Bowl XXXVI at the Superdome in New Orleans. It was the 1st of 9 Super Bowls that coach Belichick and quarterback Brady got to together, winning 6 of them.
Raiders owner Al Davis was enraged, to the point that he fired coach Gruden for not protesting the call enough. He replaced Gruden with Bill Callahan, and he led the Raiders to the AFC title the next season, reaching Super Bowl XXXVII, where they lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- coached by Gruden. The Raiders haven't been back to the Super Bowl since, and neither Davis death and replacement by his son Mark in 2011 nor their move to Las Vegas in 2020 has affected this.
In 2013, the Tuck Rule was abolished, by a vote of 29-1. The Patriots abstained, as did the team then known as the Washington Redskins. The only team to vote to keep it was, with a small amount of irony, the next team the Raiders beat after the game in question, the Steelers.
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Before this game, the Patriots had played 32 seasons, made the Playoffs 11 times, won 6 Division titles, reached 2 AFC Championship Games, and won both of them, but hadn't won a Super Bowl.
In the 22 seasons since, they've made the Playoffs 18 times, won 17 Division titles, reached 13 AFC Championship Games, won 9 of them, and won 6 Super Bowls.
What would have happened if the right call had been made, and the play was ruled a fumble?
Beating the Patriots on the road in such conditions would have been a huge boost to the Raiders' confidence. They likely would have beaten the Steelers to get into the Super Bowl. With Woodson anchoring their defensive backfield, they, as the Patriots did, could have shut down the Rams'"Greatest Show On Turf."
The following year, they trailed Super Bowl XXXVII 34-9, before mounting a comeback and closing to within 34-21 with 6:06 to go, before the Buccaneers tacked on 2 more touchdowns, both on interception returns. So maybe they wouldn't have won back-to-back titles. The following year, they fell to 4-12, beginning a 7-year stretch where they averaged 4-12.
Suppose, after winning Super Bowl XXXVI, Al Davis had told the City of Oakland or the County of Alameda, "Now is the time to give us a new stadium to replace the Coliseum"? No, it wouldn't have happened. But maybe the Raiders would have successfully lobbied Las Vegas, or maybe Los Angeles, to move sooner. We could have seen the Las Vegas Raiders as soon as the 2008 season. But that might have convinced Oakland to get the Athletics a new ballpark sooner, settling their question for the long-term.
And what would have happened to the Patriots? Without that 1st Super Bowl, would they have made it to the others? Maybe: We think they cheated many times, not just the few in which they've been caught. Maybe the cheating would have gotten harder. Or maybe, in so doing, they would have gotten caught sooner. Maybe Belichick gets suspended midway through the 2003 season, and, instead of losing the AFC Championship Game to the Pats, the Indianapolis Colts, with Peyton Manning, beat the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII.
The Steelers beat the Patriots in the 2004 AFC Championship Game, and beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX, an All-Pennsylvania Super Bowl played in Jacksonville, Florida; and make it back-to-back Super Bowl wins the next year, for the 3rd time in their history, and eventually 3 titles in 5 years.
Super Bowl XLI becomes the 2nd title for Peyton and the Colts. Super Bowl XLII turns out to feature not an undefeated 18-0 Patriots, but the AFC Champion San Diego Chargers and the NFC Champion New York Giants -- Peyton's brother Eli Manning and the team he refused to play for, resulting in the Chargers getting Philip Rivers. But the Giants were stronger than the Bolts, and would have won, anyway. In Super Bowl XLVI, the Giants avenge their loss in Super Bowl XXXV by beating the Baltimore Ravens, who win the next season as in the history we know.
By the 2014 season, the Patriots have rebuilt, but not well enough to stop a Colts team now quarterbacked by Andrew Luck. With Belichick and Brady both now things of the past, there are no deflated footballs. The Colts lose Super Bowl XLVIII to the Seattle Seahawks, who make it back-to-back titles, as there's no need for the Pete Carroll call that blew the game we know.
The Atlanta Falcons still get humiliated in Super Bowl LI, but it's against the Steelers. The Eagles still finally reach the mountaintop, but it's by beating the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Los Angeles Rams still flop, but it's to the Kansas City Chiefs, who end up becoming the 1st team ever to win 3 straight Super Bowls: In Super Bowl LV, the Chiefs reverse the result of Super Bowl I, beating the Green Bay Packers, because Brady isn't there to lead the Buccaneers.
And what happens to Belichick? After getting caught cheating, no NFL team will ever hire him again. But a college team desperate enough to accept a former cheat might, possibly in the Southeastern Conference or Texas (or, in the case of Texas A&M, maybe both). But after enough poundings from Florida, LSU and Alabama -- or from Texas and Oklahoma, if they're in the Big 12 -- and Belichick disappears into the mists.
And what happens to Brady? After the 2003-04 Playoffs, he's a handsome white quarterback with a strong right arm, who says the right things, and has gotten a team to 2 Playoff berths. He would have gotten another chance somewhere. Maybe he, rather than Mark Sanchez, succeeds Vinny Testaverde and Chad Pennington as starting quarterback of the Jets. You can't imagine Brady committing "The Butt Fumble," can you? I can: Even with the man you might believe is the greatest quarterback of all time in the timeline you know, the Jets will always be the Jets.
By New Year's Day 2022, the New England Patriots have never won a Super Bowl, they have not been to one in 25 years, Bill Belichick is a once-great defensive coordinator who failed as a head coach in both the NFL and the college ranks, Tom Brady is probably a college football analyst for one network or another, and the team with the most Super Bowl wins is the Pittsburgh Steelers, with 8.
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But that's what should have happened. As for what actually happened, can referee Walt Coleman and his officiating crew really be blamed for changing the history of the NFL?
Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame the Officials for the Rise of the New England Patriots
5. Mo Lewis. If the Jet linebacker hadn't sacked and injured Patriots quarterback Drew Bledsoe, Brady wouldn't have stepped in, and...
4. Peyton Manning. He had so many chances to stop the Patriots' run. He didn't.
3. The Rams Choked. They could have beaten the Patriots in the Super Bowl, and rendered them a one-and-done team instead of a dynasty. They didn't.
2. The Raiders Choked. They still could have won the game. They didn't.
1. The Patriots Cheated. We can't prove that they cheated to win The Tuck Rule Game. But we know they've cheated. With their record, they must be presumed guilty unless and until they are proven innocent.
VERDICT: Not Guilty.