Is Carter worthy of election to the Baseball Hall of Fame?
Joseph Chris Carter was born on March 7, 1960 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. He made his major league debut for the Chicago Cubs on July 30, 1983. For most of his career, which lasted until 1998, he played the outfield, although he spent some time at 1st base. In 1992, he caught the last out of the World Series at 1st base, and, of course, the next year, there was no "last out," as he joined Bill Mazeroski as only the 2nd, and he remains the last, player to hit a game-winning home run to clinch a World Series win.
He made 5 All-Star Games. He never won a Most Valuable Player award, finishing 5th in the American League voting in 1991 and 3rd in 1992. His lifetime batting average was just .259, peaking at .302 with the 1986 Cleveland Indians. His career OPS+ was 105, making him only 5 percent better at producing runs than the average player in his time.
His career hit total was just 2,184, hardly enough by itself to make him Hall-worthy. But he hit 432 doubles and 53 triples, both very good totals. He hit 396 home runs, despite playing most of his career in pitcher's parks.
To put that in perspective: Joe Carter had more career home runs than these guys, all of whom got into the Hall of Fame on the basis of hitting home runs: Hack Wilson, Chuck Klein, Hank Greenberg, Yogi Berra, Johnny Mize, Joe DiMaggio, Ralph Kiner, Carlton Fisk, Tony Perez, Orlando Cepeda, Jim Rice and Johnny Bench. He had only 2 fewer home runs than Dale Murphy, who some people believe belongs in the Hall; 3 fewer than Al Kaline, who is; and 11 fewer than Duke Snider, who is.
If you think about the guys who hit famous home runs, that's not just more than the ones who seemed to be flukes, like Mazeroski, Al Weis, Bernie Carbo, Bucky Dent, Ozzie Smith, Geoff Blum or Travis Ishikawa. It's also more than good hitters like Bobby Thomson or Chris Chambliss. It's even more than big sluggers like Fisk, Jack Clark, Kirk Gibson or Magglio Ordonez.
He had 6 seasons of at least 30 home runs, although his peak was 35, with the 1989 Indians. He had 10 seasons of at least 100 RBIs, 11 of at least 98, and 1,445 for his career. With the 1986 Indians, he led the AL in RBIs with 121, a peak he matched with the 1993 Jays. He was a good baserunner, too, stealing 231 bases, including 6 seasons of at least 20 steals, peaking at 31 with the 1987 Indians.
Does his defense help? Not much: While he was never considered a bad fielder, and was versatile enough to play 4 different positions regularly (774 games in left field, 625 in right field, 432 in center field, and 308 at 1st base, plus 173 as a DH, and 1 each at 2nd base and 3rd base), he never won a Gold Glove. and was never seriously considered for one.
Does postseason play help? Yes: He reached 3 straight postseasons with the Jays, 1991-93, and, unofficially, 1 more at the end of his career, helping the San Francisco Giants reach a playoff for the 1998 National League Wild Card berth.
Does character help? It should: He was much-admired while he played, he was never seriously accused of using performance-enhancing drugs, he is not known to have ever been arrested, he has never been involved in a personal scandal, and he runs an annual charity golf tournament in the Toronto area, the Joe Carter Classic.
Two of his former teams, the Jays and later the Cubs, thought enough of him to hire him as a broadcaster. His hometown of Oklahoma City thought well enough of him to put a statue of him outside their new Triple-A ballpark, along with 2 Hall-of-Famers from Oklahoma, Bench and Mickey Mantle.
The Jays have not retired his Number 29, but they have honored him in their "Level of Excellence," equivalent to a team hall of fame. In 2003, he was elected to the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame. In 2006, he was voted by Jays fans to be their representative for the Major League Baseball Hometown Heroes Award, as the former or current player who best represented the team's legacy. In 2015, Jays fans honored him again, voting him into their "Franchise Four" as part of an MLB promotion.
However, when he became eligible for the Baseball Hall of Fame in the election of 2004, he received only 3.8 percent of the vote. Since that was less than 5 percent, he was immediately dropped off the ballot. If he is to be elected, it will have to be through the Expansion Era Committee (1 of 3 groups, divided by era, that replaced the old Veterans' Committee).
On Baseball-Reference.com's Hall of Fame Monitor, a "Likely HOFer" has a score of 100. Carter is at 87, meaning he falls a bit short. They also have a category called Hall of Fame Standards, on which the "Average HOFer" has a score of 50. Carter's score is 32, so he falls well short.
They also have "Similarity Scores," showing a player's 10 most statistically similar batters, with position taken into account. Here are Carter's top 10: Dale Murphy, Ruben Sierra, Carlos Lee, Andres Galarraga, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Don Baylor, Gary Gaetti, Chili Davis and Jim Rice. Only Rice is in. Jones might get in. Maybe Hunter will get in, if they consider his defense. But any case to let Carter in won't find much backup there.
Joe Carter was a terrific hitter, and, by all accounts, is a good guy. I wish I could say he deserves election to the Baseball Hall of Fame. But he's a bit short.
It didn't have to be this way. In his last season, when he was 38 years old, he batted .260, hit 18 home runs, and had 63 RBIs. If he could have done that twice more, taking him to age 40, he would have had 432 home runs, 1,571 RBIs, and almost 2,400 hits. And, presuming he had stayed with his last team, the Giants, he would have reached another postseason in 2000, and might have had enough left to get them past the Mets and the St. Louis Cardinals to win the Pennant, and face the Yankees in the World Series. That might have been enough to put him over the top.
But there's no guarantee that he would have kept it up for 2 more seasons, or even 1. The great general manager Branch Rickey said, "I'd rather trade a player a year too early than a year too late." Most players don't get to go out on their own terms. It looks like Joe Carter did. Which does speak to both intelligence and character.
Maybe someday, the Committee will consider both his performance and his intangibles, and open the doors of Cooperstown to him.